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Silicon Valley's Retail Market

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By Broderick Perkins
DeadlineNews.Com For

Carmel art gallery owner Sandy Phillips Dobronte didn't advertise her third and largest gallery, Phillips Gallery of Fine Art, a 5,200 square-foot Santana Row showroom for 35 international artists, but on opening day, Aug. 1, visitors toured the new gallery at the rate of about about two dozen an hour.

When Paul Chalupsky and Rick Schott were looking to expand the Castus Low Carb Superstore from their original San Ramon and Fremont locations, initial expansion plans include a new 1,800 square foot Capital Expressway Castus in San Jose set to open in November.

In May, San Francisco residents and founders of World Wraps, Eduardo and Sylvia Rallo chose San Jose's Santana Row, not San Francisco, to launch Cazuelas, an authentic central Mexican cuisine restaurant that's now enjoying receipts 800 percent above projections.

"I believe San Jose has the income, population density and diversity demographics and it's a myth that people in this area do not appreciate quality the way they do in San Francisco. We've dispelled the myth," said Mr. Rallo.

Retailers who know the way to San Jose have helped keep some of the luster in Silicon Valley's tarnished commercial real estate market where office space is 25 percent vacant and apartment rents have fallen nearly 25 percent since 2000, according to Marcus & Millichap's reports.

Retail, on the other hand, is the market darling.

Vacancies in retail space have ranged from 3.7 percent in 2000 to only a projected 5.5 percent for 2003 and rents are stable -- $26.26 per square foot, "triple net," (tenants to pay all utilities, insurance, taxes, and maintenance costs) in 2000 to $26.38 per square foot, triple net projected for 2003, according to Marcus & Millichap's 2003 National Retail Report.

"Part of it is that lease rates went up to nose bleed levels for apartments and offices and they are still coming back down," said Ted Kokernak, a senior investment associate with Marcus and Millichap's Palo Alto office.

"Retail is a much more stable product type. Leases are long term agreements that often come with two or three five-year options with little increases in the rents. That makes them more attractive as financial investments and more resistant to fluctuations in the economy. And it isn't over produced. It's not like you can drive down the street and see a bunch of shopping centers. But how many office buildings can you shoot a cannon ball through and not hit anybody?" Mr. Kokernak asked.

Those factors have lead to a flurry of activity in Silicon Valley's dynamic retail market -- even through the soft economy.

  • In central San Jose, Westfield Shoppingtown Valley Fair, a 1.5 million square foot regional mall wrapped up its $165 million, 110,000 square foot expansion with more than three dozen new stores in the spring of 2002. In recent years, the mall has enjoyed average annual sales ranging from $500 to $700 per square feet, excluding anchor-store sales, often more than twice the national average, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

  • Across Stevens Creek Boulevard, Santana Row, the old-world style retail destination with upscale lofts and townhomes for rent, overcame an 11-alarm fire in August 2002 to open months later to growing retail sales and long lines for restaurant seating.

  • In south San Jose, Westfield Shoppingtown Oakridge is in the midst of a $134 million makeover that could include a Target store replacing the old Montgomery Ward site. Last year, Target's first Silicon Valley two-story superstore, with 166,000 square feet, replaced Montgomery Ward at San Jose's Westgate Mall.

  • After an $84.5 million renovation last year by the previous owner, new owner Mills Corp. of Arlington, VA is about to further spiff up the 1.3 million square foot Great Mall in Milpitas, including finishing a 60,000 square-foot portion.

  • This summer, the Indianapolis, IN-based Simon Property Group, Inc. agreed to purchase a 100 percent stake in Stanford Shopping Center, in Palo Alto, California, for $333 million.

  • There's also been upgrade activity or plans on both sides of the Westgate Shopping Center district, Eastridge Mall, and Willow Glen Plaza all in San Jose, in the Crossroads Shopping Center and Vallco Fashion Park in Cupertino and at Campbell's made over Pruneyard -- to name a few.

    Continued: Silicon Valley's Retail Market>>

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  • Continued...

    Silicon Valley's Retail Market

    The retail buzz is due, in part, to the relatively small amount of specialized commercial real estate space dedicated to selling goods and services.

    "A shopping center needs to be on a site that has 25,000 cars a day going by in front of it. It's also a single-story product. Retail shoppers are not used to going up four stories to buy things. What this means is there is a small amount of supply and an ongoing demand," said Randol Mackley, a principle with the Retail Real Estate Group in Santa Clara.

    "You've got a a tremendous amount of investment capital being hurled at the industrial and office sector but not at retail so we didn't see a lot of retail being built. There's a lot of financing for retail, unfortunately there's just not a lot of retail land available," Mr. Mackley added.

    As well as helping to boost or stabilize rents, the supply-demand equation has helped keep retails sales strong.

    During boom times, retail sales in Santa Clara County rose from $14.4 billion in 1997 to a peak of $19.8 billion in 2000 before dropping back to $17.9 billion in 2001. Last year, however, retail sales were up again to $18.4 billion, according to Sacramento-based California Retail Survey.

    With Silicon Valley's unemployment above 8 percent it helps that those who are working punch clocks at companies paying the highest incomes in the nation.

    Last year, San Jose topped the list of metropolitan areas with the highest annual disposable income per household in Sales & Marketing Management's 2002 Survey of Buying Power. Last year, San Jose's median "EBI" (effective buying power or gross annual income minus taxes) or disposable income, was $67,504, compared to $57,494 for San Francisco (No. 5), $55,273 for Oakland (No. 8) and $53,459 for Santa Cruz (No. 10), according to the magazine survey which uses data crunched by SiteReports.com, a service of a San Diego-based market researcher, Claritas Inc.

    Retailers also like Silicon Valley's collection of affluent neighborhoods that surround shopping centers.

    Right now, the median EBI in the 95041 ZIP code, which includes Cupertino's Vallco Fashion Park is $80,041; the Stanford Shopping Center's 94304 ZIP code area has a median $63,568 EBI; the 95050 ZIP code around Valley Fair has a $51,486 EBI; and the 95128 ZIP code area surrounding Santana Row yields a $49,233 EBI, according to Claritas' SiteReports.com.

    During the technology boom, Silicon Valley spread sudden wealth from technology stock market investments and technology company incomes and perks. Wise investors who managed their returns well often plowed their returns into the area's other relatively hot real estate market -- housing.

    During the tech boom, the California Association of Realtors reported that the percentage of stock market proceeds used in home purchases rose as high as 23.9 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area.

    As the tech boom waned, the housing market also fizzled, but many home owners escaped the economic downturn relatively unscathed thanks to nearly a decade of residential real estate equity growth.

    The recession officially began in March 2001 when the median price of homes in Santa Clara County was $565,000. By the recession's end nine months later in November that year, prices had slipped to $498,000. This year, the latest July figures reveal the median price has returned to the $565,000 level at the onset of the recession, according to Richard Calhoun, owner broker of Creekside Realty in San Jose.

    Record low mortgage rates have allowed many home owning households to increase their disposable income by tapping that equity with record levels of cash out refinance loans and second mortgages.

    In California and much of the nation, economists say the down turn has been cushioned by equity tapping and still more buying in the housing market, which some experts say is now the linchpin of the New Economy.

    "Property values have maintained themselves, so many were in a position to ride out the recession and they've been able to do it for a period of time. So I think that has led some people to be fairly confident. Large amounts of equity in their homes have allowed them to have the ability to maintain some of their buying power," said Jim Cunneen, president and CEO of the San Jose/Silicon Valley Chamber of Commerce.

    Despite all the good news, the retail business isn't what it used to be.

    The city of San Jose reveals two years of first quarter dip in general retail sales taxes. First quarter retail sales taxes peaked at almost $6.6 million during the first quarter of 2001, but dropped to $5.8 million during the first quarter this year, the latest figures available.

    Claritas also reveals San Jose households have also lost a few thousand dollars in spending money as the median EBI in 2003 has slipped to $63,543 from $67,504 last year.

    "Spending patterns show people are optimistic, but compare our market to other markets around the state and retail sales would not compare favorably. The downturn has hurt us more than other parts of the country as well," said Mr. Cunneen.

    More Silicon Valley Market News

    Published September 2003, for:


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